The Federal Observer

What is going to happen when the greatest economic bubble in the history of the world pops? The mainstream media never talks about that. They are much too busy covering the latest dogfights in Washington and what Justin Bieber has been up to. And most Americans seem to think that if the Dow keeps setting new all-time highs that everything must be okay. Sadly, that is not the case at all. Right now, the U.S. economy is exhibiting all of the classic symptoms of a bubble economy. You can see this when you step back and take a longer-term view of things. Over the past decade, we have added more than 10 trillion dollars to the national debt. But most Americans have shown very little concern as the balance on our national credit card has soared from 6 trillion dollars to nearly 17 trillion dollars.

Meanwhile, Wall Street has been transformed into the biggest casino on the planet, and much of the new money that the Federal Reserve has been recklessly printing up has gone into stocks. But the Dow does not keep setting new records because the underlying economic fundamentals are good. Rather, the reckless euphoria that we are seeing in the financial markets right now reminds me very much of 1929. Margin debt is absolutely soaring, and every time that happens a crash rapidly follows. But this time when a crash happens it could very well be unlike anything that we have ever seen before. The top 25 U.S. banks have more than 212 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives combined, and when that house of cards comes crashing down there is no way that anyone will be able to prop it back up. After all, U.S. GDP for an entire year is only a bit more than 15 trillion dollars.

The foundation of the Soviet model of trade and investment was centralization under the guise of “universal public ownership”. The entire goal of communism in general was not to give more social and political power to the people, but to extinguish alternative options and focus power into the hands of a select few. The process used to reach this end result can vary, but the goal always remains the same. In most cases, such centralization begins with economic hegemony, and it is in our fiscal structure that we have the means to see the future. Sovietization in our financial life will inevitably lead to sovietization in our political life.

Does the U.S. economy’s path resemble the Soviet template exactly? No. And I’m sure the very suggestion will make the average unaware free market evangelical froth at the mouth. However, as I plan to show, the parallels in our fundamentals are disturbing; the reality is that true free markets in America died a long time ago.

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Late at night on November 6, along with John Mauldin, Doug Casey and a group of partygoers in a café here in Cafayate, we watched on a small television as Obama’s contract was renewed by a majority of the mob. As was the case with many readers, I suspect, my initial reaction was disbelief.

While I try not to pay a lot of attention to the careers of individual politicians, but rather prefer to monitor the carnage they inflict on the world in the collective, I sincerely believed that Obama’s steady transgressions against commonsense economics, individual liberty and the rule of law would see him unceremoniously turned out.

So much did I believe this that I even put money on the outcome. Upon waking the next morning, I reflected on what had come to pass and felt doubly stupid in having expected a different outcome. It was, in hindsight, so obvious.

You see, if Mitt Romney had been elected, it would have been a pause in the continuum that we here at Casey Research have been warning dear readers about for years.

The federal government spent enough money on federal means-tested welfare programs to have sent each impoverished household a check for nearly $60,000, according to figures from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Research Service (CRS).

According to a report from the CRS produced for Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), $1 trillion was spent on federal welfare programs during fiscal year 2011 – with $746 billion in federal funds and $254 in state matching funds. (Read More)

The United States’ every economic score has sunk under Obama. We can’t take another four years.

Strangely enough, with all the rhetoric directed at which presidential candidate is better qualified to “save the middle class,” few in the media have asked just what it actually takes to do so. The short answer is economic growth. Candidates Romney and Ryan get this, even if the president does not. But how exactly does one conjure up growth?

The short answer, again, is that one produces goods and services that consumers prefer over those of others. In a free market, the supply of goods increases, the quality improves, and the price goes down. All consumers are better off, assuming they are able to compete in the marketplace.

A devastating economic depression is rapidly spreading across the largest economy in the world. Unemployment is skyrocketing, money is being pulled out of the banks at an astounding rate, bad debts are everywhere and economic activity is slowing down month after month. So who am I talking about? Not the United States – the economy that I am talking about has a GDP that is more than two trillion dollars larger. It is not China either – the economy that I am talking about is more than twice the size of China. You have probably guessed it by now – the largest economy in the world is the EU economy.

Things in Europe continue to get even worse. Greece and Spain are already experiencing full-blown economic depressions that continue to deepen, and Italy and France are headed down the exact same path that Greece and Spain have gone. Headlines about violent protests and economic despair dominate European newspapers day after day after day. European leaders hold summit meeting after summit meeting, but all of the “solutions” that get announced never seem to fix anything. In fact, the largest economy on the planet continues to implode right in front of our eyes, and the economic shockwave from this implosion is going to be felt to the four corners of the earth.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 6 million Americans — significantly more than first estimated — will face a tax penalty under President Barack Obama’s health overhaul for not getting insurance, congressional analysts said Wednesday. Most would be in the middle class.

The new estimate amounts to an inconvenient fact for the administration, a reminder of what critics see as broken promises.

The numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are 50 percent higher than a previous projection by the same office in 2010, shortly after the law passed. The earlier estimate found 4 million people would be affected in 2016, when the penalty is fully in effect.

That’s still only a sliver of the population, given that more than 150 million people currently are covered by employer plans. Nonetheless, in his first campaign for the White House, Obama pledged not to raise taxes on individuals making less than $200,000 a year and couples making less than $250,000.

And the budget office analysis found that nearly 80 percent of those who’ll face the penalty would be making up to or less than five times the federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family of four.

Average penalty: about $1,200 in 2016.

Friday’s payroll jobs report says that 96,000 new jobs were created in August and that the unemployment rate (U.3) fell from 8.3% to 8.1%. As 96,000 new jobs are not enough to keep up with population growth, the decline in the U.3 unemployment rate was caused by 368,000 discouraged job seekers giving up on finding employment and dropping out of the work force as measured by U.3. Discouraged workers are not included in the U.3 measure of unemployment, which makes the measure useless. The only purpose of U.3 is to keep bad news out of the news. the U.3 unemployment rate only measures those who have not been discouraged by the inability to find a job and are still actively seeking employment.

The government produces another unemployment measure, U.6, which includes people who have been discouraged by the inability to find a job and have been out of the work force for less than a year. This measure of unemployment is 14.7%, a number that would get attention if reported.

When the long-term (more than one year) discouraged workers are included, the US unemployment rate is about 22%. In other words, the real US rate of unemployment is almost three times higher than the reported–headline rate–of 8.1%.

When someone in the mainstream media goes out on a limb to tell the truth, then the rest of us should go out of our way to applaud that effort. Reporter Ben Swann of Fox 19 in Cincinnati is one of the few local television reporters in the United States that consistently tackles the tough issues. As you can see from his “Reality Check archives“, he regularly does reports on the Federal Reserve, the emerging police state, the loss of our freedoms and liberties, the advance of globalism, the economic collapse, political corruption, etc. etc. That is one reason why his YouTube channel is rapidly approaching a million views. In his most recent Reality Check, Ben Swann asked this question: “Is auditing the Federal Reserve really necessary?” In just four minutes, Swann covered the creation of the Federal Reserve, where money comes from, the 16 trillion dollars in secret loans given out by the Fed during the last financial crisis, and why an audit of the Fed is so important. It really was extraordinary to watch a local mainstream news reporter tell the truth about these things. We could definitely use about 1000 more reporters just like him. (Read More)

After Fed chief Ben Bernanke patiently explained how lousy the economy is, Senate Democrats said he needs to do even more in the way of stimulus. That’s like arsonists faulting a fireman for how he fights a fire.

Following the 2008 crisis, the Fed slashed interest rates to zero and boosted its balance sheet a jaw-dropping $3 trillion to give the economy a boost. Say what you will, the last three years have without question marked the most stimulative policy followed by the U.S. Fed ever. And whether you believe it has worked or not, the Fed did something.

That’s in stark contrast to Democrats in Congress. They blame Republicans for Democrats’ own fiscal mistakes, while for three years failing even to produce a budget and now threatening to crash the economy with half a trillion dollars in ruinous tax hikes.

The Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present an incredibly powerful interview with Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media. The company’s flagship publication, FORBES, is the leading business magazine. Combined with international and licensee editions, FORBES reaches more than 6 million readers worldwide. The Forbes.com website is a leading destination for senior business decision-makers and investors with more than 30 million unique visitors per month.

Hera Research Newsletter (HRN): Thank you for joining us today. With the U.S. economy struggling to recover from recession and financial crisis, what policies would you recommend?

Steve Forbes: The only way to recover is to stabilize our money, have a gold backed dollar, simplified tax code and return to a free market.

HRN: You advocate the gold standard?

Steve Forbes: If there’s any better system to ensure a stable value for money, it’s yet to be found. For nearly all of America’s first 200 years, the dollar was linked to gold. Since we went off the gold standard, we’ve had more and more financial, economic and banking crises. For example, if the Federal Reserve hadn’t started to print so much money ten years ago, we wouldn’t have experienced the housing bust or the commodities boom or the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Eventually, events become a persuasive teacher.

There are consequences to being flat broke.

There are consequences to investing any level of confidence in a financial system underpinned by debt and the creation of paper currency.

There are consequences for ignoring reality and pretending that everything is normal.

This is one of them: European officials yesterday flat out admitted that they were discussing rolling out a series of harsh capital controls across the continent, including bank withdrawal limits and closing down Europe’s borderless Schengen area.

Some of these measures have already been implemented sporadically; customers of Italian bank BNI, for example, were all frozen out of their accounts starting May 31st upon the recommendation and approval of Italy’s bank regulator. No ATM withdrawls, no bill payments, nothing. Just locked out overnight.

WASHINGTON, DC – Perhaps one reason President Obama faced stiff opposition in the West Virginia and Kentucky Democratic primaries is because of his war effort – his war on coal. And unfortunately to many,, this is one effort in which he is showing great success.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a dramatic drop last week in power sector coal consumption for the first quarter of 2012. Coal-fired power plants now generate only 36 percent of U.S. electricity. Considering that figure stood at almost 45 percent just a year ago, the drop in coal-fired power is shocking to say the least. (Read More)

WASHINGTON — The economy could relapse into a recession if President Obama and Congress remain at an impasse and allow several big tax increases and spending cuts to take effect at the start of 2013, the Congressional Budget Office reported on Tuesday.

The nonpartisan budget office analyzed the impact of what has come to be called the year-end fiscal cliff. Largely by coincidence, several big tax cuts, including those from the Bush era, will expire as deep across-the-board spending cuts take effect. Many economists say the jolt of tax increases and spending cuts would shock the economy after four years of stimulus measures.

The President has been promising an economic recovery ever since 2008, when he promised to create 5 million green jobs and to “act quickly to help people stay in their homes.” With all the promises Obama made, many voters who supported him expected the economy to begin turning around early in 2009. But then, shortly after his election, Obama let it be known that the economy had been driven “into a ditch” deeper than he had imagined, and the recovery would take some time. Then he discovered that the economy he inherited was not just in a ditch, it was actually a “mess” as well. There were always new excuses for why the recovery never came.

Since Barack Obama has no respect for America or Americans, he will doubtlessly announce that the October 2012 unemployment rate is about 6.5% or some other ridiculous lie. Does it make any difference? Not really, because he and the Charlie McCarthy dummy who is posing as our Vice President won’t be able to survive the reality of what they have done to us since January 2009.

The problems Obama will face are growing – not subsiding.

In just the last month, the pump price of gasoline has risen 20¢ a gallon. While this is bad enough, it is still worse because it put the price at a level higher than it has been in February since 1981. The reason for the rise is totally out of Obama’s control; he can’t lie his way out of it. The Iranians want to squeeze the Europeans who are already looking at $8.00 a gallon gas, so they are denying France and England oil.

The Europeans will come here to buy their gasoline because our $3.52 per gallon looks great! When they do our price will go up whether we car pool, drive less, decide we won’t buy from this company or that company or not. The price of gas on January 19, 2009 was $1.85.

The percentage of those who are unemployed who have been unemployed for 6 months or more has gone from 16% to 45.1%. Never since the Great Depression has it been that high.

All of the following measurements of our national misery are presented as “On Obama’s Inauguration Day” compared to today. These numbers come from The Senate Republican Conference.

• The raw number of unemployed Americans: 12.05 million to 12.76 million. +710,000

• Americans living in poverty: 39.8 million to 46.2 million. +6.4 million

• American receiving Food Stamps 32 million to 46 million +14 million

• Misery Index (An index combining the unemployment rate and inflation rate) 7.8 to 11.3 up 45%

• Federal debt 10.6 TRILLION DOLLARS to 15.4 TRILLION DOLLARS up 44%

• Federal debt assigned to each American $34,731 up to $49,058

• Cost of health insurance costs per employed worker $3,354 to $4,129

• College tuition $6,591 up to $8,244 an increase of 25%

• The total number of available jobs 133.6 million down to 132.4 a loss of 1.2 million jobs

• The value of the average American’s home $169,700 down to $147,800

• No amount of phony statistics or lies can cover holes this big.

• The value of gold has gone from $855.00 to $1,777.30 - a 208% increased.

(The last item was added by the publisher of Flying Eagle Gold & Silver.)

Originally published under the title of “Freedom Vs. Socialism” at Impeach Obama Campaign (with minor adjustments from the publisher of this site).

We are coming to the point in the United States when even the US government will no longer be able to borrow at very low long-term rates. That point is a few years off, and we have time to change paths; but as I have shown in previous letters, the longer we wait to get the deficit under control, the fewer choices we have and the more painful they are. NO country can run deficits the size we are currently running, along with unfunded deficits over four times the size of the economy and a growing overall debt burden, without consequences. At some point, investors in bonds will start wondering exactly what the process is by which they will be repaid. And what will the value of those future payments be?

One by one, the countries of Europe are losing their ability to sell their bonds at an interest rate that is sustainable for their economies and revenue bases without severe and socially disruptive restructuring, even if a central bank that will accommodate their spending by printing money or other countries will tax their citizens to pay for someone else’s debts.

The US will soon be faced with that same problem if we do not act soon. Will it be 2014? 2015? 2016? I think it will be earlier rather than later, as the bond market will look at Europe and what will soon be an imploding Japan and decide that the US is only different in size and scale. The interest on the debt is a growing part of the overall budget, and any rise will put severe constraints on spending or force large tax increases or require the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt. None of those have positive outcomes. Ignored long enough, it will bring about another Depression. [Read the full column]

In the past five years the U.S. started the foreclosure process for more than 8.2 million homes. It has completed 4 million of them.

A new report and presentation from RealtyTrac says that there are currently at least 1.4 million U.S. properties in some state of foreclosure. Also, foreclosure activity is expected to rise from the ‘artificially low levels of 2011.’

We drew on the part of the presentation that focuses on what the foreclosure market looks like now, and what to expect in 2012. It highlights the California housing market since it’s the largest in the country.

Click here to see the presentation

Did you see the Chrysler commercial featuring Clint Eastwood that aired during the Super Bowl the other night? It was entitled “It’s Halftime In America“, and it was truly a great ad. To me, it was the most memorable Super Bowl ad this year by far. It conjured up images of the America that so many of us remember so fondly. It reminded us of how life in this country used to be. Unfortunately, America is currently headed down a road that is taking us in the opposite direction. Yes, it is halftime in America, but there is no guarantee that what is ahead is going to be great. In fact, if we continue to make the same choices that we have been making, a national nightmare is inevitable. Let us hope and pray for a fundamental change of direction for America, but let us also prepare for what is going to happen if that does not take place. There is a “pause in the action” at the moment, so now is the time to get your financial priorities in order. Now is the time to prepare for the storm that is coming. If you wait until the storm is right on top of you it will probably be too late.

But I must admit that I really loved that ad. First of all, any Super Bowl ad that includes Clint Eastwood is almost automatically going to be a great ad. Secondly, it was very refreshing to see a commercial address some of the very serious problems that this country is facing.

The ad ended with Eastwood making the following statement….

“This country can’t be knocked out with one punch. We get right back up again, and when we do the world is going to hear the roar of our engines. Ya, it’s halftime in America, and our second half is about to begin.” (VIDEO)